Kitchin umjikelo. imijikelo elifutshane-term kwezoqoqosho. umjikelezo Juglar. Kuznets umjikelezo

Umjikelo wezoqoqosho - ixabiso kunyuka imveliso kwesambuku kwixesha elide. Le ukwehla okanye ukunyuka GDP linxulunyaniswa inqanaba lophuhliso. Kukho iintlobo ezininzi oscillations ezinjalo, ezahluke ubude zabo. Uninzi elifutshane - Kitchin umjikelo, ixesha apho - iminyaka 3-5. Ezinye iingcali zoqoqosho baye bafunda umbuzo ukuhla gross kwimveliso. Iimali nabo imijikelo Juglar, Kuznets kunye Kondratiev.

amagama key

Ekuhambeni wophuhliso lwawo, njengoko uqoqosho kwixesha kuphuhliso ngokukhawuleza mihla le nangenxa yokudodobala. Kitchin Umjikelo uchaza ukuhla zexesha elifutshane. wave Kondratieff ugubungela isiqingatha utshintsho leminyaka. Ingcamango umjikelo ushishino obanzi kuthetha ixesha nexesha kwaye zingama enye kuphela ixesha nokuwa, ukufikelela omnye komnye. La manyathelo ezimbini zibalulekile. Sisalathisi se ekuqaleni nasekupheleni komjikelo yipesenti ukukhula kwemveliso yokwenene GDP. Nangona la ukuhla kumsebenzi nezoshishino kakhulu engalindelekanga.

History of the isifundo

Ingcamango umjikelo kwezoqoqosho walelwa ngabameli yesikolo yamandulo. ubukho babo, ngokwesiqhelo ke wachaza iimfazwe neengxabano. Zabo iphicothwe kuqala Sismondi. Umsebenzi wakhe uye zanikelwa ukuba ukwesaba ka-1825 eNgilani, apho waba ngowokuqala nengxaki yezoqoqosho kwenzeka kwixesha loxolo. Sismondi kunye neqabane lakhe Robert UThami wayibiza ngokuba unobangela hormone kunye underconsumption, okubangelwa kungalingani ukwabiwa kwengeniso phakathi kwabantu. Bona ayexhasa ngoncedo ngurhulumente kwezoqoqosho kunye socialism. Kwizangqa imfundo, umsebenzi wabo Akucaci ethandwayo. Noko ke, phezu ngcamango ngaphantsi ukusetyenziswa unobangela iingxaki, ngoko apho kuza kwakhiwa isikolo ezaziwayo-kakuhle Keynesian. theory Sismondi saphuhliswa yi-Charles Dunoyer. Wabeka phambili ingqikelelo mijikelo variable. UKarl Marx wabona ngeentlekele ngamaxesha njengoko ngxaki iphambili naluphi na uluntu longxowankulu yaye kwangaphambili kuloo mbuso. Genri Dzhordzh wabiza intelekelelo nelizwe oyena nobangela ukuwa waza wacebisa ukuba kwenziwe irhafu esinye factor kwimveliso.

imihlobo imijikelo

Ngowe-1860, yezoqoqosho French Klement Zhyuglyar kuqala ichazwe ukungalingani kwezoqoqosho kunye rhoqo iminyaka 7-11. Yozef Shumpeter wayesithi ukuba luqulathe izigaba ezine:

• Ukwandiswa. Kukho ukwanda imithamo imveliso, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, kuwa kwenzala.
• Crisis. Kweli nqanaba, ivuthu--stock, kunye namashishini amaninzi kunye neenkampani bayahamba yimali.
• Recession. Entengo kunye nemveliso miqulu bayaqhubeka awe kunye namazinga enzala, ngokuchaseneyo, ikhula.
• Recovery. Exchange re-ekuqaleni ukusebenza ngamaxabiso kunye nengeniso ukuwa.

Schumpeter wahlanganisa ukumimitheka koqoqosho kunye nokukhula ngempumelelo yemveliso, nentembelo abasebenzisi elizayo yemfuno aggregate kunye namaxabiso. Phakathi kwinkulungwane XX, yena ecetywayo a typology yemijikelo ngenxa ngexesha labo. Phakathi kwabo:

• Kitchin umjikelo. Kuthabatha iminyaka emi-3 ukuya kwemi-5.
• umjikelezo Juglar. ubude bayo - iminyaka 7-11.
• Kuznets umjikelo. Inxulunyaniswa utyalo-mali kwiziseko. Kuthabatha iminyaka eli-15 ukuya kwengama-25.
• Kondrat'eva wave okanye ngomjikelo inkqubo elide. Kuthatha ukusuka kwiminyaka engama-45 ukuya kuma-60.

Namhlanje, inzala kwimijikelo zehla kancinane. Oku kungenxa yokuba Uqoqosho yanamhlanje ayithethi ukuxhasa ingcamango oscillations rhoqo ngamaxesha athile.

Kitchin umjikelezo

Kuthatha iinyanga ezingama-40. Ezi okunzulu elifutshane elide yokuqala uphando nguJoseph Kitchin ngo-1920. ityala layo uthathwa lag bokwexeshana ukuhanjiswa kolwazi ezikhokelela kulibazisa iifemu izigqibo. Zinkampani basabela ukuphucula imeko yorhwebo ngokwandisa imveliso. Oku kukhokelela ukusetyenziswa ngokupheleleyo umsebenzi nekomkhulu. Ngenxa yoko, emva kwexesha elithile, imarike sobisi nezikhukhula kunye nempahla. umgangatho wabo kuguga ngenxa umthetho Say. Imfuno uyawa, ixabiso - iimpahla ezifanayo aqalile bafumbe ezikwindawo yokugcina impahla. Emva kwexesha elithile, inkampani uqala ukunciphisa imveliso. Kwaye udlula umjikelezo Kitchin.

Oonobangela kunye neziphumo

imijikelo kwezoqoqosho Kitchin enxulumene kunye nokungabikho ithuba yovavanyo lwephanyazo kweemeko yemarike. Iinkampani kufuneka ngelixa ukuqalisa ukwandisa imveliso, kwaye isigqibo sokuba nokunciphisa umthamo wayo. Ulibaziseko kungenxa yokuba abaqeshi musa ngoko nangoko ukuba oxhaphakileyo ngoku emarikeni - ubonelelo okanye imfuno. Emva koko ke kufuneka nabo ukukhangela ulwazi. Eziwudibanisayo kunye nokusetyenziswa kwezisombululo xa befundisa. Akukho lula ukufumana ngokukhawuleza abasebenzi abatsha okanye abeke ngaphandle yakudala. Ngenxa yoko, elifutshane umjikelo Kitchin ezinxulumene ukulibaziseka ukuqokelelwa nokulungisa ulwazi.

Yozef Kitchin: Isishwankathelo

Yena oyingcali British kummandla manani kunye nosomashishini. Yozef Kitchin wasebenza kushishino lwezimbiwa eMzantsi Afrika. Ngowe-1923 yena waqala ukufunda imijikelo zoshishino elifutshane elide kwi-United Kingdom kunye United States kwixesha ukususela 1890 ukuya 1922. ubude wabo kwiminyaka engama-40 ubudala. Iziphumo zophando lwakhe, echaza umsebenzi osihloko sithi "Imijikelo kunye oluhamba imiba yezoqoqosho." Lo mbhali uchaza ukuba ubukho ezinjalo intlokoma reactions zengqondo ukuba imo yobungxowankulu imveliso kunye nexesha libe lisalele ekudluliseni ulwazi oluchaphazela inkqubo mveliso yokwenziwa kwezigqibo. Ngamanye amazwi, umjikelo Kitchin uphawuleka ngokomgaqo kubonelelo kwempahla ngamashishini ngokwemiqathango intswelo yabo kwimalike.

A ithuba leminyaka 7-11

Juglar umjikelezo izihlandlo ezibini ngaphezu Kitchin. Kodwa Scientist yayo ubukho umva ngo-1862. Phakathi oonobangela ezichongiweyo ukuhla Juglar ebizwa utshintsho lotyalo-mali izinto ezingahambiyo, hayi nje kwinqanaba yengqesho. Ngo-2010, isifundo usebenzisa Uhlalutyo yaqinisekisa ubukho lemijikelo ezinjalo Dynamics imveliso yehlabathi GDP.

Kuznets umjikelezo

Le okulindeleke oscillation. Baye kuqala uphando uSimon Kuznets ngo-1930. Baya kuthatha malunga 15-25 iminyaka. Isizathu soku umbhali wovandlakanyo ekuthiwa iinkqubo zezibalo. Yena ndilolonga yokufika abafakwa kunye ezinegalelo zokwakha ezinxulumeneyo. Smith linophawu kwabo kwimijikelo zotyalo-mali lwezibonelelo. Ezinye iingcali zoqoqosho zale mihla kudibanisa imijikelo data kunye nokunyuka nyaka-18 kwexabiso kwi ilizwe njengomba kwimveliso. Isiphumo bambone kwenziwe irhafu okhethekileyo. Noko ke, uFred Harrison ikholelwa ukuba ayenzi pfuna nokuba nokunciphisa cyclicality. Ngowe-1968 Hauri ugxeke isifundo Kuznets. Wathi lo data ephosakeleyo zahlalutywa. Noko ke, Smith wathi lemijikelo ezichongiweyo ingabonwa ekukhuleni kwehlabathi kwesambuku semveliso kwaye ngaphandle ukusetyenziswa filter yasungulwa kuwo.

ucwaningo Kondratieff

Uninzi imijikelo zoshishino elide abe ixesha leminyaka 45-60. The Economist eSoviet ezaziwayo-kakuhle Kondratieff wayekholelwa ukuba ukuhla ezichaphazela onke amacandelo ezoqoqosho. Wagxininisa kumaxabiso, kwenzala. Ngamnye Umjikelo Kondratiev wazibalula izigaba ezine. Isalathisi engundoqo, yena wafunda, waye ukuveliswa ngokwexabiso. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, kukho amaza ezintlanu ubude:

• Ukususela 1890 ukuya 1850, ngenxa imbonakalo injini kunye nesiqalo ukusetyenziswa kwezi yomqhaphu.
• Ukususela 1850 ukuya 1900. Ukuveliswa ephambili kaloliwe injini zentsimbi nensimbi.
• Ukususela-1900 ukuya 1950 enkundla anxulumene nazo akusiwa umbane kunye nophuhliso loshishino kwemichiza le.
• Ukususela ngowe-1950 ukuya 1990 amacandelo babe imithi propulsive kunye iimoto.
• wave entsha ezinxulumene ulwazi nobuxhakaxhaka benzululwazi njengoko injini inkqubela.

Ukongeza ingcaciso zobuchwepheshe, ezinye iingcali zithi imijikelo elide Kondratieff ngotshintsho ngokwedemografi, intelekelelo umhlaba kunye deflation kwetyala. Kukho iinguqulelo ezininzi zale mihla thiyori Economist eSoviet. Baya lungahlulwa-hlulwa ibe ngamaqela amabini. Eyokuqala igxininisa utshintsho kwiteknoloji. I Elesibini lihlolisisa umjikelo ngetyala. Noko ke, abezoqoqosho abaninzi abayikholelwayo imfundiso Kondratieff amaza elide. Nkqu impikiswano nangaphezulu koko iminyaka ingqalelo ekuqaleni komjikelo ngamnye. Ekuqaleni yeengxaki zemali ehlabathini jikelele ingena kakuhle ngokwaneleyo ngethiyori Kondratieff, eziphawula isiqalo ixesha ukuhla.