Yintoni inobungozi awe amaxabiso oyile Russia? Isizathu ukuwa kwamaxabiso e-oyile

Wonke umhlali of Russia uyazi kakuhle le meko ezazikho kwilizwe lakhe. Kwezi nyanga zimbalwa zidlulileyo, le engange yawa ngendlela emangalisayo, nto leyo Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ukuthengwa amazwe iye kwakungenakwenzeka, kwaye iibhanki uhlangabezana neengxaki abathile bakhupha likomkhulu enkulu kubaxhasi babo. Plus, ixabiso yeoli wawa, ukuba backfired kuqoqosho karhulumente xa iyonke.

Kutheni kuwa kwamaxabiso e-oli okanye iyelenqe wezopolitiko theory

Ukuqwalasela imeko eRashiya ukusuka kwindawo kwezoqoqosho kwimboniselo kuphela, iingcali ezininzi uqaphele ukuba kukho licandelo yezopolitiko iziganeko orhwebo lwe-oyile. Abantu abaninzi bacinga ukuba ukuwa okukhulu kwamaxabiso oyile - lilinge "kuzityumza" Russia ngezenzo zayo ngokuphathelele Ukraine. Kubanjwe ngaxeshanye ukuba iziganeko zenzeka ngo-1979. Emva ingxokozelo e Afghanistan, i-US ngokuzenzela ukwehliswa kwamaxabiso "igolide black 'aqhubela, sicinga ukuba oku kuya kukhokelela ekuweni USSR. Loo nto ingaba imeko ngoku yaye yintoni usongela Russia ukuwa kwamaxabiso e-oyile, akunakwenzeka ukuba kuthi ngokuqinisekileyo. Kuhleli kuphela ukuvavanya uqoqosho karhulumente enkulu.

Yintoni imeko ukubharhula yeoli namhlanje?

Ukuba kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo kwakukho intetho malunga ingxaki amandla kuye, namhlanje bandilibele ehlabathini. Xa orhwebo lwe-oyile, i-supply a amanyathelo ezimbalwa ngaphambi ebango. Oku kubangelwa kukwanda kwemveliso amafutha eUnited States. Kuyinto Melika namhlanje yenye yeendawo phambili kwi mveliso oyile kumazwe angaphandle. Ukunyuka ngokukhawuleza imveliso licwangciswe kwaye eKhanada. Russia, Saudi Arabia ukuba unikeze kukudla kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe incwadi eyodwa. Ukuwa kwamaxabiso oli ehlabathini ngenxa yokuba abathengi ezininzi amafutha (US kunye Canada) namhlanje baye bayeka nje kuthenga amafutha, kodwa baye baqalisa ukuthumela yona. Libya wabuyela emarikeni emva ungquzulwano lwangaphakathi bexhobile, Iraq, kunye US inkxaso.

Yintoni belukhuni ukuqikelela ixabiso yeoli?

imbono abaninzi asikwazi ukubona kwangaphambili ukuba xa ukuncipha isiphelo kwamaxabiso e-oyile. Oku kungenxa ezichaphazela koshishino amafutha. Kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe iimpahla real-5% kuphela ingeniso iyonke. Ubunzima ezinye zorhwebo - na ikamva, ezo izivumelwano zobonelelo amafutha kwixesha elide. Ngamanye amaxesha ixabiso "igolide abamnyama" ifuthe imfazwe kunye zendalo iintlekele, ukuwa kwezoqoqosho. Kwangaxeshanye, oko kuyenzeka ukuba ixabiso le mveliso kuhlala ukwimeko emile, nkqu utshintsho ngamandla kuqoqosho lwehlabathi. Yintoni kucacile nje yokuba unikezelo lidlula imfuno, kwaye imeko kwixesha elizayo akayi kutshintsha.

uqoqosho Russia kunye namandla

Yintoni esongela Russia kuwa kwamaxabiso e-oyile, akukho namnye unako ukuthi, kodwa ikhonkco ocacile imeko energy market kunye noqoqosho kukarhulumente ukulandelela nangoku ilawula. Ukususela ngowe-1999, i-yokugqibela lukhula ngenkuthalo (ukuya ku-2001) kwenzeka. Oku kukhatshwa ukwehla lwemali kazwelonke kunye nomsebenzi ngokupheleleyo kumenzi lwasekhaya. Kweli xesha ukususela ngo-2003 ukuza kuthi ga namhlanje yaba nempumelelo Russian inxulumene ngqo nokukhula okomeleleyo kwamaxabiso ombane ehlabathini. Le meko kakuhle ukuba eli lizwe ukuba uhlawule ityala zangaphandle ukwandisa oovimba i Central Bank of ezingaphezu kwama-425 ezigidi zeerandi.

Bakhathazekile yi kukuba ubudlelane kwezoqoqosho eYurophu, eli lizwe kude kakhulu. amazwe EU iqhubekela kude izinto Russian zepetroli, kwase basebenzisane kunye Saudi Arabia. Yonke into eya okukunyusa kwezohlwayo kwi-Iran, kunye nokubuyiselwa kubonelelo yeoli Iranian ukuya kwimarike yehlabathi.

Zalisa ukuxhomekeka orhwebo lwe-oyile Russian

Yintoni esongela Russia ukuwa kwamaxabiso e-oyile, kulula kakhulu ukuba unokuthekelela, kuba ilizwe uxhomekeke ngokupheleleyo phezu kwamanye amazwe amafutha, ingakumbi namhlanje, xa amanye amashishini baqalisa ukuzisa ingeniso ubuncinane ukuya mali. Ngenxa yoko, i-Chamber iye ngo-2014 yabhengeza ukwanda mali ngenxa yorhwebo oyile 1 ezigidi engange, kwakunye nokunciphisa inzuzo engange billion 300 kuzo zonke ezinye izinto. ngamafutha nje kuphela kodwa igesi, nto leyo ibandakanyeka ukuthunyelwa Russia, wenza ngakumbi imeko. Ukuhla kwamaxabiso e-oyile kwakhokelela yokuhla amaxabiso igesi, njengoko amandla amaxabiso yi yolunye. Kukho ukunyuka intsilelo nge 0.5-0.7% ngonyaka.

Tshintsha kungenzeka kuphela utshintsho kumaziko kwezoqoqosho kunye infusions inxaxheba kuphuhliso kwamanye amacandelo yomsebenzi. Livimbela iseke ummiselo omtsha umyalelo karhulumente, uxinzelelo yezemali phezu ishishini kunye norhwaphilizo. Phakathi amacandelo ubundlobongela umsebenzi, nto leyo kwixesha elizayo anokunika uzinzo eRashiya, kubandakanya ezolimo kunye yokunyibilikisa isinyithi.

uphuhliso ngokugqithisileyo kushishino oyile negesi yaba isizathu sokuba abaqeshi abavumi ukuphuhlisa, abanawo yenkuthazo. Ngenxa yoko, wambona yokuhla ukuthandwa imveliso yasekhaya ngayo kwimarike ehlabathini. amashishini ezininzi ezijolise umboleki ekhaya, kuba ufana ngokuphawulekayo kulo umyalelo ababelawula ngexesha eSoviet.

Ngandlel 'ukugcina yelizwe ezintsonkothileyo emkhosini-mveliso kunye noshishino yenyukliya. imboni Products uba kuthandwa kakhulu ehlabathini. Ngelishwa, xa kuthelekiswa ne-iimveliso ingeniso kwicandelo oli-gas kufuneka ngamandla okhankanywe.

mali Russia kwaye ukuwa kwamaxabiso e-oyile

ibhajethi eRashiya kule minyaka mithathu izayo zibalwa ngokusekelwe yokuba ixabiso le-oyile ayikho ngaphantsi iidola 96 umphanda. Le isiqingqo ingqalelo isitshixo ntle eli lizwe. Enyanisweni, Brent (ukunikezelwa, yomhla we-Disemba) namhlanje wathengisa ngexabiso ka-78 zeerandi. Le yi-30% ngaphantsi kwe linikeza zemarike ngoJuni. Nangona imeko ezimbi, ukunciphisa imveliso kumazwe amafutha-uku rhweba musa bengazimisele. Emva kokuba amaxabiso oyile ukuwa, imali yengeniso yamazwe angaphandle ukusuka kwiintengiso zakhe zehla kathathu.

Okunxuseneyo ukunciphisa mali ka-Russia yehle yexabiso engange. Kusilela kwe US lwemali na oyile imeko ebalulekileyo nkulu neenkampani zorhwebo, njengoko imfuno ukubhatala izibophelelo ngetyala akayi kumka ngohlobo lwemali. Bayinyusela ukuziphatha imeko yabemi. Abantu, kuba ezama ukugcina imali yabo, waqala ukuthenga kakhulu imali yelinye ilizwe. Imfuno ngaphaya ukubonelela, kwaye ke kwiintsuku ezimbalwa lenyuka laya kutsho nowakho zembali. Xa kukho ukuhla kwamaxabiso oyile ngowe-1986, isimo kuncitshiswa bubukho umqamelo-mali, nto leyo eye wavumela ilizwe ukuze baphile ngamaxesha anzima ngaphandle umonakalo omkhulu. Namhlanje, imali stock ezibhankini ukuba kakhulu umda, nto leyo eyenza abemi Russian jittery. Plus, urhulumente kulo nyaka sele echithe malunga 90 billion lwemali egciniweyo ukuzama ukugcina thile engange. Ukuzinzisa le meko ayizange yenzeke.

Yintoni inobungozi awe amaxabiso oyile Russia?

Namhlanje eRashiya, batsala nzima. Kubalulekile ukuqwalasela into yokuba unobangela ukuwa kwamaxabiso e-oli ayikho yedwa. Kukudla komlilo wawagalela kunye Government of the State ngokwayo. Ngokutsho abahlaziyi noqoqsho ngamazwe, imeko kwimarike oyile ihlabathi inokuba njengomanduleli ekuweni kwenkqubo zemali, i-50% yayo na ingeniso evela kwintengiso eneji. Kwakhona iingcali zikholelwa ukuba ukwehla iya kuqhubeka kangangoko njengexabiso a Umphanda yeoli iya kukugubungela ngokupheleleyo iindleko zalo imveliso. Okwangoku, isalathiso ixabiso zisendleleni 38%. Yaye akayi ayeke. Ekupheleni kuka-2014 kunye nasekuqaleni kuka-2015 imeko efana lowo bawubona ukuhla kwamaxabiso oyile ngo-2008.

Imeko ngeoli abachaphazelekayo amazwe ehlabathini?

Abavelisi yamafutha ye-shale US iya kublokha iindleko zabo gesi amafutha, ukuba iindleko ayehluka $ 40. Ngokutsho kwe-Arhente Energy, ixabiso ndiyindla ku $ 42 ngaphezulu ixabiso kuphuhliso "zegolide abamnyama" kwi Bakken Formation, leyo ngenkuthalo asuse OPEC angamalungu. Kwamanye amazwe, ngokutsho Monetary Fund, imeko ngolu hlobo lulandelayo:

• Kuwait, i-UAE kunye Qatar ulindele iindleko $ 70 umphanda.
• Iran - 136 zeerandi.
• Venezuela ne Nigeria - 120 zeerandi.
• Russia - $ 101.

Xa ukunciphisa iireyithi data ngaphezu urhulumente uya ngokuthe kuhlawulwa yi ngurhulumente lobunzima. Kwaye ke akuyi akunamsebenzi, akukho sizathu ukuwa kwamaxabiso eoli.

Ifuthe ioli dollar ubomi-abathengisi eRashiya

Ukunciphisa iindleko zamafutha kule minyaka 2014-2015. kunye nokunyuswa elibukhali kwi dollar, okuhlala yorhwebo kakhulu ulwelo ukuba urhulumente Russian. wokwehla exchange zangaphandle yanyanzela urhulumente ukuba athathe kwi loluntu nje kuphela, kodwa ezinye iimbopheleleko ezininzi abemi balo. Kutshanje, inxalenye yemali yamanye amazwe bathengisa ethenga phezu zokuhlala engange kunye nabantu. Namhlanje lokufeza izibophelelo zinokuphunyezwa kuphela umba (imali). dollar intsilelo - ngenxa yokuwa kwamaxabiso e-oli - hayi nje nzima ukuthenga impahla evela kwamanye amazwe, kwaye kwezinye iimeko wenza akatsho engenakwenzeka. Hi ndlela leyi, kumayeza amazwe kunye nezixhobo zonyango, izixhobo ze-ofisi mobile phones, umqhaphu, oomatshini kunye nezinye impahla ngaphezu kwe-80% yemarike.

imiphumela olusekuhleni ukuwa amaxabiso oli obufihlwe intsingiselo kwempahla. Sales miqulu abawayo emangalisayo, amaxabiso kunyuka, abemi yayeka ukuba zesinyibilikisi. Kwakhe kuqala beza phantsi iinkampani ungenisa, njengoko azisekho ngeenkonzo ezifanelekileyo. Ukulandela "enzonzobileni," moya subcontracting amashishini, ingakumbi, iinkampani zezothutho, izitora kunye nabanye. Ngenxa yoko, Jump elibukhali kwi intswelangqesho kunye nobuhlwempu umgangatho wokukhula kwabemi.

njani nethontsi ioli phezu abemi abaqhelekileyo

Ukuwa kwamaxabiso oyile kuye kwakhokelela kutshintsho zehlabathi nje kuphela kwinqanaba yorhwebo kweli lizwe. Ngenxa yokunqongophala kwezibonelelo eziphathekayo ukuzama ukusindisa isimo kupheliswa ekupheleni ngexesha mali yeenkqubo ezininzi. Kuthethwa ayeke ukwenza kwishishini lokwakha. Okwehlileyo iinzuzo zentlalo. Kwicandelo logcino landa kakhulu inani mboleko yanto, ekhokelela imilinganiselo lwamaziko zemali. Ukukhula labathengi ibandakanya iimveliso kuphela basemzini, kodwa lwasekhaya. iindleko zemveliso Ukwanda ngenxa ekubeni ukuhlawula imivuzo ephezulu. Kulo mzekelo, zonke ummi umndilili lizwe akanako ukufumana ubuncinane eziyimfuneko ukulungiselela iimeko zokuphila.

Yintoni na uqikelelo okunika abahlaziyi

Nangona ukuntsonkotha meko, izenzo ezilandelelanayo eyakhayo urhulumente Russian nga uwugudise meko. Ngokutsho kweengcali, xa kwiindleko Umphanda ioli kwi $ 60-70 uqoqosho ngayo ukuma. Ingxelo nethemba kuvumela ityala elincinane lwangaphandle karhulumente kunye okuncinane ukusilela kwi imali engange-700 ezigidi abantu.

Amava 2008-2009, wakwenza kwacaca ukuba ekunciphiseni iindleko ndiyindla yeoli kuyo $ 40 banduluka kuphela ityali evela phantsi ezinyaweni Russia, kodwa azizange zikuthintele Olympics kweli lizwe. Nangona imali karhulumente Sivikivekile, isitokhwe kuhlala kangangonyaka onesiqingatha. Kakade ke, bonke uqikelelo nje kunye ezinokwenzeka, ezo kuphela iingqikelelo. Njani le meko iya kuba emva kokuba Enyanisweni, akukho namnye kuthi ngokuqinisekileyo hayi.