Risk analysis

Nayiphi na inkampani, ishishini, iphulo busenza ukuba ubukho imingcipheko ezithile ezichaphazela iziphumo lokugqibela yokuziphatha kwabo. Ukuphunyezwa kwesicwangciso soshishino kuquka ukutshintsha amalungelo, imisebenzi neemfanelo koosomashishini, ngokunokwenzeka iinkqubo engalindelekanga kwaye isetyenziswa ngaphambili, kwakunye neminye imiphumo.

Ukuze ukhethe ilungelo ibekwe yezenzo ukuze kufikelelwe isiphumo komsebenzi, kuyimfuneko ukuba uyithathele ingqalelo ngegalelo elingenzeka yeziphumo ebezingalindelekanga kwiziganeko ezicwangcisiweyo andilahlekwanga intsingiselo yawo. Nayiphi ngamacebo (zobuchule) scheme kufuneka iphononongwe phambi ukusebenzisa ukuze kuncitshiswe ingozi yokugqibela.

Uhlalutyo Risk lweshishini (inkampani) iqala zovavanyo zabo. Ukuze wenze oku, khetha indlela yovavanyo ekufuneka ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zokhuseleko uhlobo oluthile lomsebenzi kunye nabalawuli ngokusemthethweni lo msebenzi.

Uhlalutyo Risk ifuna ukusetyenziswa kolwazi ezikhoyo ukuvavanya amathuba iziganeko ezithile kunye nobungakanani neziphumo zazo kunokwenzeka.

Njengomgaqo, ukuqonda iziganeko lomngcipheko ezingakhiyo iimeko, ezifana ilahleko ngexesha linge, iintlekele zemvelo kunye nemiphumela emibi, njl Kunjalo, uhlalutyo lomngcipheko kunceda ukuchonga iziphumo zabo kho nelungileyo. Kuyimfuneko ukuba ukufumanisa ngeengxaki elizayo kunye novavanyo ngamathuba ophuhliso.

Uhlalutyo lomngcipheko amanqanaba ubuninzi nobulunga (iindlela uhlalutyo umngcipheko ngamnye ezikhethiweyo).

Xa Uhlalutyo lwamanani , kusetyenziswa zikwangqinisiseka le nesenzeko uphando eyabelwe lwamanani (kangakanani) amaxabiso. Kweli nqanaba zohlalutyo njongo kakhulu kwaye ichaneke (le ndlela) mlinganiswa.

Uhlalutyo esemgangathweni iquka yangaphakathi (ezenzekelayo) uvavanyo kwiimeko ezikhoyo. Kweli nqanaba ukuba ukujongwa kunye namathandabuzo ezinxulumeneyo.

Ukuthelekisa amazinga ezimbini uhlalutyo data, kufuneka iinkcukacha ngakumbi kwi stop oluninzi. Inokuba ukubamba ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo.

Kule ndlela deterministic isebenzisa iingqikelelo ingongoma. Ukuze siqonde oko kuba yintoni isiphumo kwezinye iimeko, iziganeko ezahlukeneyo ababelwe amaxabiso ezithile. Ngokomzekelo, xa imodeli zemali iinketho kungathathwa: i (ilahleko elizayo) okubi, best (Iholo elizayo) kwaye mhlawumbi (esiphakathi ngeniso isihlobo).

Kulo mzekelo, indlela uye neengxaki ezininzi: ayithethi ithathele ingqalelo iintlobo ezinokwenzeka, waza wanikel phezu iinguqulelo ezinkulu ezimbalwa (zonke zithathwa nje ilingana); nga ngokwaneleyo siqwalasele izinto ezichaphazela uphuhliso imeko, nto leyo imodeli lula. Nangona kunjalo, amashishini abaninzi basebenzisa nje ndlela izinto, nangona ukuthembeka aphantsi ngokwentelekiso iziphumo zohlalutyo enjalo.

Uhlalutyo umngcipheko Stochastic (Monte Carlo indlela) inokuthenjwa. Kule ndlela, i parameters sokuqala zombini zibe (ukuvelisa unikezelo namathuba). Kulo mzekelo, variables ezahlukeneyo kufuneka kwenzeke ezahlukeneyo ngemiphumo. Ezi nqobo zisemgangathweni ngokungenamkhethe, ngokusekelwe yonikezelo okuba kunokwenzeka.

Iisampulu kuthiwa i eziphindaphindayo. Iziphumo zeesampulu zibhalwe. Ukuba iqalise le nkqubo Ukulinganisa isampuli iphindiwe ezingamakhulu amaxesha, ngoko ke ezi ziphumo zingcono kakhulu nako nje wena ukuyityhila le ngenene ingenzeka kweziganeko kulindelekile. Idatha efana ucikizeko nako ukubonisa kuphela ngeziganeko ezizayo kuphela, kodwa kwakhona ukubonisa amathuba kwazo. Iziphumo angamelwa ngokwegrafu, kwakunye ukubonakalisa uvakalelo lwabo, oko kukuthi, ukubonisa ukuba yeyiphi variables ezichatshazelwe kakhulu nefuthe isiphumo. Esebenzisa le ndlela, kuyenzeka kwakhona ukubonisa ubudlelwane phakathi variables yokuqala.

Eyona ndlela elula ukwenza uhlalutyo lomngcipheko oluninzi esekelwe kwi- Excel spreadsheets, njengoko izixhobo yale program kuvumela ukuba wongeze iimpawu ezintsha ukuze abe nako ukwabela okuba ufumane ezi ziphumo echanekileyo.