Ubuninzi Risk Uhlalutyo: ukuphulukana njani na ishishini?

Namhlanje, kwinani elikhulu lwezicwangciso zoshishino kweeprojekthi, naxa bathe ziqulathe icandelo ezifanelekileyo eziqulathe inkalo analytical, ingxaki iingqameko kuphela ekuhlalutyeni zemali okanye ubungozi zebhanki kwaye musa ibonisa uluhlu olupheleleyo iingozi. Noko ke, iingcali kufuneka ukuba ukusetyenziswa kakhulu zombini ubunjani neenkcukacha zamanani uhlalutyo lomngcipheko. Uqwalaselo olubukhali uhlobo yesibini.

Uhlalutyo usebenza kuphela neengozi amachule kuhlalutyo esemgangathweni njengokuba ezo nto usebenzisa negalelo elibonakalayo ekufezekiseni le njongo. ngayo xa uqhuba uhlalutyo kufuneka kuthakazelelwa kakhulu ifuthe lemisitho efana kunye kwisabelo kwangaphambili rating yedijithali.

Uhlalutyo wambi ukuba kuyimfuneko kuphuhliso amanyathelo asebenzayo ukuphendula iingozi. Avamise kakhulu phakathi iindlela ezisetyenziswa ngokuqhelekileyo olusebenzisa inethiwekhi zezi zilandelayo:

- nobuzaza ukufunda, nto leyo ibandakanya ukucaza vangama ka ukungaqiniseki isiqalelo ngalunye lweprojekthi yeshishini ngexesha uthatha eminye imiba ixabiso lesiseko;

- kuqwalaselwa ixabiso lemali olukhutshwa yi phinda ixabiso ngalinye amathuba ukwenzeka kwayo, iziphumo zishwankathelwe.

Uhlalutyo nayiphi na iprojekthi zotyalo ichaza ixabiso lenani kwezinye iingozi. Yena isekelwe kummandla theory ngokuqinisekileyo, imisebenzi yophando kunye manani zemathematika.

Uhlalutyo lwenziwa xa kuthe iimeko ezimbini: ukubala esisiseko yeprojekthi loshishino uhlalutyo ngokupheleleyo qualitative. umsebenzi yawo somlinganiselo ngamanani nemiphumela yeemeko ezithile litshintsha Dynamics iikhrayitheriya ebonisa ukusebenza kwale projekthi.

Kudla kusetyenziswa iindlela ezinjalo iiprojekthi ubuninzi analysis bznes:

- uhlalutyo neziphawuli zokusebenza ezifana ixabiso net langoku kunye nezinga lokubuya, kunye isalathiso inzuzo;

- hlengiso lwe izinga isaphulelo ;

- Monte-Carlo indlela (igama yesibini - Ukulinganisa);

- ukwakhiwa komthi isigqibo.

Zonke ezi ndlela okuhlalutya kweeprojekthi zoshishino asekelwe kwindlela probabilistic.

Uhlalutyo nobulunga, kunye nokusebenza kwabo kuxhomekeke kwiimfuno kuba butho (iziphumo), iinkcukacha ezigcinwayo kunye neqondo yocwangciso nezithembekileyo. Umzekelo, indlela lusebenza kakhulu ukuba amaphulo amancinci zezi: Uhlalutyo yolungelelaniso imithetho isaphulelo novakalelo. Kwiiprojekthi ezinkulu le - Ukulinganisa kunye nokwakhiwa uluhlu lwezinikezelo ezigoso lilonke. Xa isiphumo projekthi, kuxhomekeke kwizigqibo ezithile, oko kuyimfuneko ukuze enze ukwakha emthini isigqibo.

Ngoko ke, le ndlela uhlalutyo kufuneka isetyenziswe ngendlela entsonkothileyo kunye neentlobo zabo elula eqongeni wokuhlolwa kwentsebenzo, kwaye inzima kakhulu kwaye kufuna iinkcukacha ezongezelelweyo - kunye neeprojekthi zoshishino result sesa ekugwetyelweni.