Yintoni eza kwenzeka euro? Sase- ka euro

Abantu abaninzi ayeke ukuba ukwazi oko kuya kwenzeka euro kwixesha elizayo. Imeko yezoqoqosho ezingazinzanga ehlabathini yenza abantu ukuba ukujonga iindlela ukulondoloza imali zabo, kwaye ukuguqulwa ibe lwemali amazwe kuthathwa njengomnye imiyalelo kunokwenzeka. Sinikel 'ingqalelo kwinto yokuba iingcali Musa ukungxama ukwenza uqikelelo ngoku, ekubeni uninzi lwabo kwiinyanga ezintandathu zokugqibela zazingalunganga.

Ukomeleza lo idola ngokuchasene euro

NgoMatshi 2015, abahlalutyi abaninzi bathi ekomelezeni idola nxamnye euro. Kwakukho baxakwa ukuba ngo-2017 i-lwemali US ufana ngokupheleleyo kunye nalowo yaseYurophu. Nangona pullback, nenokuthi angabonwa lonke Epreli, le meko akakafiki ngcono. Ukuze athi ukuba iimfuno elibi euro, ekugqibeleni zatshintsha, kusekwangoko kakhulu.

Ukuqala Meyi yabalasela ukuba imali aseYurophu ukurhweba kwi 1.1. arhente World ezifana Goldman Sachs, Barclays kunye BNP Paribas, kwachazwa ukuba "European 'uya kufika eli layo kuphela ekupheleni kuka-2015. sasemini Nethemba enikwe ngabameli Wells Fargo, igxininisa kwinqanaba 1.22. Uyakwazi ukuthetha Imeko-mbini ityala. iinkalo ezimbini ingqalelo: ukuhla ukuya kwinqanaba 2-hletnego ubuncinane nokunyuka ukuya ixabiso we 1.22.

uqoqosho European

Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2015, iingcali silindele ukukhula GDP ka-1-2%. Kuba Europe, eli nani linokuba kuthathelwa ingqalelo ngaphezu HIV. Lumiselwe euro omhle liqikelele izikhombisi elindelweyo koqoqosho olukhulu. Le izinga lentswela-ngqesho phakathi 9.5%, nto leyo kutshanje uye ezingeni kuphela ephindwe kabini sedola kumphakamo-1%.

Ukuwa euro ngokuchasene iingcali dollar enxulumene nophuhliso esebenzayo ngakumbi kuqoqosho of America kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo. Nangona ukukhula okulindelekileyo euro esi sibini elandelayo eminyaka, izinga silityaziswa yimiba abaninzi namhlanje. Kunokuthiwa ukunciphisa ivolyum kwemveliso yoshishino e-Germany kunye nakwamanye amazwe amaninzi ezinkulu. Le ngxaki obufihlwe uphuhliso olungalinganiyo ye-EU angamalungu. imimandla Northern namhlanje kubuyiselwa kuphela emva kokuba kungekho kukhula elide.

Ukuwa euro ngenxa yokusebenza Mario Dragi

Mario Draghi e amazwi akhe entwasahlobo yokugqibela uthe ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukuba ufuna ukuba athathe onke amanyathelo ukunciphisa ityala likarhulumente. Oku nje kodwa kuchaphazela euro. abameli Agency of Morgan Stanley bathi ombi ziya kuxhaswa yi kwenye nesihlobo nokuvuleka kommandla yorhwebo baseYurophu, kwakunye ubukho iingcinezelo deflationary. It wabhala yayikukuphuphuma wepotifoliyo-lohlobo utyalo-mali, apho idlala indima mali euro lwemali.

EU ubudlelwane ne-Russia

Kubalulekile ukuphawula ukuba i-EU uxhomekeke ethile kwi irhasi yayithengwe eRashiya, kwakunye ukubaluleka iimpahla waya kummandla we-Russian Federation. Imiqulu nezingenayo zegesi wayicola namhlanje ngokunxulumene izohlwayo, leyo iwise nefuthe elibi EU angamalungu. Nakuba lo mkhuba, euro, njengoko uqikelelo labahlalutyi zehlabathi ixesha elide akuyi kukhula. Abatyali akusekho sinethemba ukomeleza currency yaseYurophu. Njengoko iingcali zithi, "dollar era iqhuba kakuhle ngokupheleleyo." Inye kuphela osalayo nethemba - oku ukulawula izenzo ngurhulumente American, nto leyo eza kukugcina izinga lwemali yesizwe kwinqanaba elithile.

Xa ucinga umbuzo ngoko kuya kwenzeka euro elikufuphi elizayo, iingcali ezininzi Babezama ukunyanzela inkqubo ikhosi le meko kunye eGrisi. Umhlaziyi arhente ihlabathi Stratfor ingqalelo iindlela ezimbini kuphela ukuba ezinye izenzakalo:

• Greece bahambe izowuni euro Germany uya kwazisa uphawu waseJamani. Le yenye kuqikellelo ezininzi ezimbi ngenxa EU, nto leyo eya kuthumela iperi "EUR / USD" ukuya lokudada kude esemazantsi. Ngoko kukho ingozi yokuwa epheleleyo lwemali yaseYurophu.
• Le ndlela yesibini - nokuqhubekeka ngentsebenziswano eGrisi, Germany. Inkxaso-mali eya kunikwa States, oko lakhelwe uqoqosho lwehlabathi le-EU, kodwa isantya kuphela isantya ngokukhawuleza ukukhula engayi kuba sisiganeko avela.

"Enye dollar - Euro enye" njengomnye kwezinye ezi meko

Ukuqwalasela lo mbuzo oko kuya kwenzeka nge Euro kwiminyaka embalwa elandelayo, abahlalutyi ka Goldman wavakalisa izinga lotshintshiselwano kwinqanaba US $ 0.9 = 1 Euro ngo-2017. Iingcali musa ayeke ukuthetha malunga nokoyikiswa deflation kwaye phantse zero, kwaye kwezinye iindawo kunye nokukhula elibi kuqoqosho. Ukususela ekuqaleni kuka-2015 imali yesizwe yaseYurophu bawa 2.6% nxamnye kwemali yamazwe 9. To ubo ne dollar kuhlala elingephi,% malunga 15 kuphela.

Kufanelekile ukuba sikhankanye ukuba euro sele phantsi kumgangatho ofanayo njengoko US lwemali ngo-2012. Ekupheleni kuka-2014, euro iye walahlekelwa phantse-12% sayo. Ngokutsho Chris Iggo, intloko inkampani yengeniso fixed AXA Management Investment, zixatyiswe kungenziwa, ukuba umgaqo wolawulo-mali ye-Fed kunye ECB kuhlala ingatshintshwanga. Thina kukuba ekwindla 2014 ECB buye kwi iidiphozithi nge 0.2%. Liphezu Izithuba Draghi ukuba bathenge iibhondi yaseYurophu lobunganga kwaye ukubamba kwisigaba esilandelayo sale nkqubo ka Inzala yemali eninzi ebonakalayo namhlanje EUR / USD drop format.

nokubuyiselwa okwethutyana

Yanamhlanje pullback euro to entla - yinto Njengesiphumo esithe ngqo amanyathelo athathwe ECB ekupheleni kuka-2014. Sithetha ukunciphisa izinga lenzala ukusuka 0,15% ukuya 0.05% kunye ukuhla kwenzala kwi iidipozithi, ekubhekiswe kuyo ngaphambili. La manani ephantsi ngokwembali ukuba euro kwavusa iibhanki ngenkuthalo noboleka lenene, kunokuba zemali kwicandelo. kweenyanga ezintandathu kuphela kamva, emva kokuba ukwamkelwa eqatha le ECB, uqoqosho baseYurophu baqalisa kwakhona kancinci. Khumbula ukuba akukho mntu ekunciphiseni thelekelwayo amazinga. Loo meko kwabonakala kunokwenzeka ezintandathu kuphela abezoqoqosho udliwano amahlanu anesixhenxe.

Euro and currency yesizwe Russian

Ngaphandle kwento yokuba euro nxamnye kwinkangeleko dollar uhlala negative, lulwahlulo engange / Euro iya kuba yinto eyahlukileyo. Imali yaseYurophu nxamnye engange kwixesha elifutshane kuya kuqhubeka ukuze zikhule. Ukwenziwa buthathaka kuqoqosho Europe nxamnye imvelaphi Russia ikwimeko encomekayo kakuhle kakhulu. Le meko ibangelwa iziganeko ezenzeka kwimarike oli ehlabathini. Ngaxeshanye kunye kokuwa kwamaxabiso oyile uya kuvuka kunye euro. Nangona ukunyuka yangoku kwamaxabiso e-oyile, iingcali nangoku elinde ekuhleni amaxabiso oyile ukuya kaJanuwari phantsi, ukuze ukubala ngomhla wesibini jump yokukhula euro eRashiya. Musa ukulibala ukuba uqikelelo i yangaphambili, kunye nokwenzeka iphezulu ukuba imali engange uya kuqalisa ukomeleza indawo.

iya kuba ixabiso euro Yintoni, ngokutsho abahlalutyi zehlabathi osenyongweni?

iimbono Ingcaphephe ziyahluka ngokuphathelele euro, kwaye luphawulwa banethemba zabo. Deutsche Bank ikholelwa ngaphantsi zixatyiswe uvingce ikhosi kwi $ 0.95 Euro nganye ekupheleni kuka-2017. Wezulu George Saravelos imali umbhali kukuba ngo-2000 yi-euro / dollar lingathengiswa 0,8300. Ngenxa kubume nokulatyuza ukuhla emva kwesithuba seminyaka esixhenxe ukuya elithoba, iingcali Deutsche Bank musa kubona nantoni na imeko avela.

ibhanki British HSBC unika ngezinto ezahlukeneyo ephezulwana euro. iziko zemali, iingcali uqinisekile ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2015, i-Euro ngokuchasene dollar iza ukodlula ngo-1.19. Abameli Barclays ibikhuthaza kwinqanaba 1.1, nabanako niwabonileyo namhlanje, kodwa iingcali Morgan Stanley nabavumayo afune 1.14.

Okwangoku, kunzima ukuba bathi, indlela baziphathe euro elizayo. Ixabiso namhlanje ukuba ngcono, enyanisweni, njengoko EU uqoqosho emva kwentlekele ayikho kuphela ekupheleni kuka-2014, kodwa ka-2008-2009. isimo sokwenene Complex akuyiphazamisi bakholelwa zophengululo ezininzi elizayo ethembisa kakhulu kweyunithi lemali lase Europe. Kuhleli ukuba kubonwe oko kuya kwenzeka kunye euro ngakumbi.