Xa Russia iya kubeyisa le ntlekele? uluvo isazi

Le ntlekele Uqoqosho Russian iinkqubo kuthatha indawo iminyaka eliqela. Yinto yemvelo abemi ezininzi lizwe zePhulo ukuba unokubuza enoba Russia iya kubeyisa le ntlekele, yaye xa kusenzeka. Ngapha koko, nentlo-ntle yoluntu ixhomekeke impendulo kuwo. Eyona nyaniso yile, xa Russia iya kubeyisa le ntlekele. uluvo Ingcaphephe kuya kusinceda kulo.

Ukubala

Ngaphambi kokuba ukuya kwingxoxo xa Russia iya kubeyisa le ntlekele, masifumanise ukuba yavela yaphuhliswa kweli lizwe kakuhle ngayo. Oku kuya kusinceda sibone iindlela ivela kuyo.

Emva kokuba jikelele yemali nengxaki ka-2008 , uqoqosho eRashiya ekuqaleni-2010, waqalisa kakulu kancinci. Kodwa sele ngo-2013 kuye kwakho imikhuba emibi, eyona ibaluleke ngakumbi kuzo kwakukho abathile apho kuphuma eyinkunzi evela lizwe. Nangona kunjalo, izinga le meko, nangona uhlobo ntlekele ngokwabo kakhulu isantya kuqoqosho Russia abakwazanga. Ngoko ke, lo imbonakalo-2014 iyancumisa kwi yonke.

Kakhulu ngxelo imbi kakhulu ukusebenza ngomhla neemali lizwe ukuba izohlwayo zoqoqosho ebekwe ngo-2014, i-West, ingakumbi esasisikhulu kwamaxabiso eolini yenzekile ngexesha elifanayo. iingcali zoqoqosho ngokwahlukileyo ukuqikelela isikali ifuthe la kwi ukuqhubela phambili kwale ntlekele, kodwa inkoliso yabo bayavuma ukuba kakhulu ebonakalayo.

izohlwayo Economic amazwe Koloni wakhonza umqobo ekuphunyezweni inani leenkqubo edibeneyo, kuphela intsingiselo izixhobo ezifunekayo kuphuhliso lwamashisini Russian, kwaye kungenzeka imali kumazwe aphesheya lwamashishini basekhaya ezibhankini, kwakunye kakhulu zandisa isixa ukuphuma eyinkunzi. Ukuphendula, urhulumente Russian ziye antisanktsii angenise, okwathi kwaba eziliqela neziphumo ezibi kuqoqosho Russian. Ngokukodwa, imfuneko afune zinkonzo ezintsha iimveliso zezolimo. Noko ke, iingcali ezininzi bayavuma ukuba impendulo ixesha elide urhulumente Russian phambi inkqubo echukumisayo negalelo kuphuhliso kwezolimo kweli lizwe.

A negalelo kakhulu kuqoqosho Russian yaba ukuhla elibukhali kwamaxabiso igolide abamnyama. De phakathi kuka-2014 amaxabiso e-oli ligqithe ngokuthe chu umgangatho $ 100 umphanda ekupheleni konyaka oko wehla phantse $ 55 umphanda. Ngo-2015, ukuwa waqhubeka, kwaye ekuqaleni 2016 ixabiso bafikelela ubuncinane, ezibetha ngaphantsi $ 30 umphanda.

Ukunciphisa iindleko zamafutha kuphela bachaphazeleka ngokungalunganga ukuzaliswa mali, kodwa negalelo kukuwa engange kuthelekiswa zemali ehlabathini. Ngokuchasene dollar ukususela ekuqaleni kuka-2014 ukuya ekuqaleni 2016. engange iye yehla nge ngaphezu kwezihlandlo ezingama-2.5. Noko ke, kamva, ngenxa yokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile, imali Russian yakwazi ukuphumelela umva indawo kancinci.

Kokuwa engange kuye kwavusa ukwanda kwamaxabiso, ukwanda kakhulu kwamaxabiso impahla evela kwamanye amazwe, kunye nakukuhla kwi imivuzo yokwenene. Ukongeza, umbhodamo kwezoqoqosho unokunciphisa umthamo we-GDP, Wayixakaxa ezininzi njenge inani leeprojekthi.

Akukho nto ayimangalisi into yokuba, ngenxa yabemi ngoku ukhathazeke kakhulu ngalo mbuzo: "Xa Russia iza kuvela kule ntlekele?"

uqikelelo zikarhulumente

Kuqala kwinto zonke, masifumanise, xa Russia iya kubeyisa le ntlekele, njengoko amagosa karhulumente.

Embindini ka 2015, uMphathiswa wezeMali Anton Siluanov wanika lentelekelelo yayo loo mbandela. Wathi ukuba iRussia iya kuvela lengxaki ekuqa- 2015-2016 kaThixo. Njengoko ubona, ubude echaziweyo ixesha sele idlule, kodwa imeko yezoqoqosho kuhlala enzima kakhulu. Ngelo xesha ke kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba, ngenxa yokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso oyile kwikota yokuqala ka-2016, kodwa kubekho ezinye izinto ezintle.

A zemo balumke ngakumbi ukuba iRussia iya kubeyisa le ntlekele, wanika uMphathiswa woPhuhliso lwezoQoqosho Aleksey Ulyukaev. Ngokutsho kwakhe, ukukhula koqoqosho kuya kwenzeka kuphela ngo-2017, ngokuba kwemali ziza kupheliswa ekupheleni kuka-2016. Nangona kunjalo, xa kuthelekiswa ne indawo abanye abahlaziyi, Ulyukayev ngumlomo Kuyinto nethemba.

Intloko ye-Central Bank of Russia aziwayo yemali yasekhaya Elvira Nabiullina, ngokusekelwe izigqibo iziko abahlalutyi 'okhokelwa kuye, wathi ntlekele ziya kukhatshwa kuqoqosho Russian kude kube sekupheleni kuka-2016. Amazinga okukhula kulindeleke kuphela ngo-2018, yaye kwinqanaba yayo yangaphambili, ziya kukhutshwa ngo-2019. Le meko Nabiullina unxulumanisa ioli zexabiso eliphantsi lusekiwe. Kodwa utshintsho ixabiso wegolide abamnyama ukuze ulungise kakhulu yibhanki eyongameleyo liqikelele olunye uphuhliso loqoqosho lwesizwe.

Stepan Demura: kubi kakhulu

Ezahlukeneyo ukususela izimvo yobume urhulumente Russian malunga nombuzo "ingaba Russia nga kuvela kwi" liye umhlaziyi ezaziwayo-kakuhle Stepan Demura. Ngelo xesha, ke kwangaphambili nengxaki ehlabathini-mali ka-2008, xa inkoliso ezinye iingcali ngisho nokuwabona lwezakhono zawo.

Stepan Demura uthi le ntlekele baya kuhambela kuphela ngo-2016. Ucingela ukuba phakathi enyakeni nexabiso dollar lula ukunyathela phezu uphawu engange-125 nangaphezulu. Esona sizathu siphambili kwentlekele kuqoqosho Russian mihla Stepan Demura uthi ukuxhomekeka okubalulekileyo ekumisweni mali karhulumente ukususela ekuthengisweni kwinqanaba amandla. Ngokutsho kwakhe, Russia akayi kuba nako ukuphuma yeentlekele ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, okwangoku ukoyisa oku kuxhomekeka, kwaye kwixesha elifutshane, kuba nzima.

Kodwa ke into ekufaneleke ukuba siyicinge kukuba Stepan Demura Kudala kwaziwa ukuba iingqikelelo zayo lokuhle kakhulu malunga nemeko yoqoqosho Russian. Ngethamsanqa, inxalenye enkulu kubo iyeza yinyaniso.

Slava Rabinovich: ukufika "dada elimnyama"

Ndivumelana Stepanom Demuroy on, xa iRussia iya kubeyisa le ntlekele, slava Rabinovich, ngubani na yemali odumileyo kunye nengcali kwezoqoqosho. Kwakhona linoluvo lokuba iRussia olinde ngaphambi zimbi kuphela meko. Rabinovich wathi kusekho umbuzo omkhulu ingaba Russia iya kubeyisa intlekele ekuyo i-lizwe, phantsi kwezopolitiko, kunjalo namhlanje.

Slava Rabinovich uthi iRussia ulindele ukufika "Black Swan", ngoko ke ntlekele uya isikali elikhulu ngokwenene. Eli gama libhekisela kwisiganeko elibi eyayibaluleke kakhulu ukuba ungakwazi ukuqala chain reaction na izakhiwo, kokutshabalalisa isakhiwo yonke yolawulo.

Ngokomzekelo, xa kwimeko yimali ye yenye yeebhanki ngokucwangcisekileyo ebalulekileyo Russian ingaqalwa inkqubo imilinganiselo ye inani ebalulekileyo kumashishini noqoqosho zeli lizwe ezikhokelela someleza ebalulekileyo ntlekele.

Indlela ephuma ubunzima ngenxa Russian slava Rabinovich kweli nqanaba akaboni. Kodwa ke mabaqaphele ukuba ngokoqobo ngokuchasene kurhulumente lwangoku, ngokunjalo iingxoxo bakhe ukuba niyinikele inani elikhulu icala elinye.

Kudrin: iseti amanyathelo ukuze woyise loo ngxaki

imbono yakhe kumbuzo, xa Russia iya kubeyisa ntlekele, lowo wayesakuba nguMphathiswa wezeMali of Russia, kwaye ngoku ingcali anegunya Alexei Kudrin. Xa amazwi akhe yakutshanje, uyangqina ukuba ntlekele lalonyukile ngo-2015. Noko ke, naye uthi ukuba angakhululeki, ngokuba le ntlekele iya ngayo ixesha elide kodwa.

Umhla ezithile ngomnyango lokugqibela ukusuka crisis Kudrin ubiza. Ke yena uthi uphume kuya kuba kakhulu nzima okanye ingenakwenzeka ngaphandle ngesisombululo iingxaki ezithile. Kudrin ine uluvo malunga indlela yokufumana phandle kwintlekele yoqoqosho eRashiya. Okokuqala, njengenyathelo uzinzo kwezoqoqosho Alexei Leonidovich uthe ukuphuculwa kulawulo loluntu, ngelo okwangoku nokungaphumeleli kwawo.

Kwakhona yinxalenye ebalulekileyo nto kuthiwa nokudala unxulumano bokuthembana phakathi kukarhulumente, uluntu kunye namashishini. Elinye inyathelo ukuya nokuzinziswa kweemali zoluntu - ukhulisa umhlala-phantsi. Phela, kule nkalo, ndivumelana Kudrin nokwenza Finance UMphathiswa Anton Siluanov.

Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba iingxelo ze Alexei Kudrin kuqoqosho Russian elizayo Akubanga kudala, ukuba silahle ngaphezu langoku.

Uluvo kwamanye abahlalutyi ekhaya

Ngaba ukwabelana abanethemba ngurhulumente IsiRashiya ukuya ukoyisa ingxaki kule minyaka izayo, Igor Nikolaev, ngubani na umlawuli Institute for Development Strategic. Noko ke, meko yakhe meko ayikho cwaka angabathembi njengoko Stepan Demura kunye slava Rabinovich. Igor Nikolayev ukholelwa ukuba indlela yokuphuma ezi ngxaki kuza kuphela ngokudibanisa izinto ezithile. Kubo iquka ukwanda okubonakalayo kwamaxabiso e-oyile, wavulwa, izohlwayo ze-West ukuya Russia nenguqulo nangoko kubume kulawulo lwezoqoqosho. Kwimeko apho ubuncinane enye yezi meko ziya akwazi ukuthetha malunga ngokoyisa ingxaki kusekwangoko kakhulu. Ixesha ngqo xa bobathathu iimeko ithotyelwe, oko akwenzeki ukuba igama, ekubeni kuxhomekeke nje kuphela ekhaya kodwa iinkqubo zangaphandle.

Abahlaziyi cr i nokuye ziye nemizekelo emibini ye kuphuhliso olunokwenzeka kwixesha elizayo. Omnye wabo, ixabiso yeoli ayiyi kuba elumelwaneni lwaloo $ 35 umphanda. Imeko yesibini eqala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso wegolide esimnyama 45 eerandi. Kodwa kuqala yaye kwimeko yesibini, kude 2020, kuya kuba nzima ukuthetha malunga imiqathango ukuba ukukhula kwezoqoqosho. Nje $ 35 umphanda, iilahleko zemali eRashiya luya kuba ngaphezulu kakhulu kunokuba ngendleko $ 45.

Uqikelelo ubuchwepheshe amazwe

Kakade ke, ingcali uluvo kunye norhulumente namagosa basekhaya kwi umba wendlela eRashiya uza kuvela ingxaki, kakhulu umdla, kodwa uvavanyo njongo ngakumbi le meko kufuneka ukuba bajonge yinxalenye yengxaki. Makhe sibone ukuma zezezimali ehlabathini kunye neengcali kwi imeko yezemali Russian Federation kaThixo.

IMF ukuqikelela ukuhla oluqhubekayo kuqoqosho Russian ngo-2016-2017. Nangona kutshanje ebesiyiqikelele ukuba okuhle kakhulu ngakumbi amaziko mali yezizwe. Bathi ukuba ntlekele uya koyiswa ekupheleni kuka-2016. Kwaye ngo-2017, uqoqosho Russian kufuneka ukubonisa ukukhula-1%.

Abaphandi kwi-arhente iindaba Chinese "IXINHUA", phezu koko, bakholelwa ukuba Russian Federation ngaphandle naziphi na iingxaki ziya kukwazi ukoyisa ntlekele. Ngaphezu koko, akukho mfuneko ukubuza umntu: "! Nceda Russia ngaphandle yeentlekele" Yena kakhulu unako iyazibonakalisa. Ezona zinto zifuneka kuqala ezingundoqo oku, abahlaziyi bakholelwa China kunethuba elikhulu eli lizwe, kwakunye yamanyama kwabantu. Noko ke, umhla oluthile ingcali hayi kuthiwa.

Iingcali portal okuhlalutya eJamani, kakhulu, bakholelwa ukuba iRussia uyakwazi eziququzelela ukumelana neengxaki zoqoqosho. Oku kwenzeka xa amaxabiso oyile kunyuka kwakhona, nto leyo, ngokutsho amaJamani, buyinto kunqandwa, ekufuneka kulindeleke ngokukhawuleza amazwe OPEC iya kuvumelana. Russia uzinzo kwezoqoqosho ngeke nje kuphela kodwa ekomelezeni indawo.

uqikelelo izazi

Kakade ke, xa kuthethwa, xa Russia iya kubeyisa le ntlekele, abavumisi ngeenkwenkwezi uqikelelo ukwenzela uninzi bakuthi akukho esichazayo, kodwa kananjalo kufuneka ngokufutshane uthe nixoxa ngale sihloko.

Umfazi nabakhwitsi ezaziwayo-kakuhle Pavel Globa Tamara kwakhona oyingcali kwi iingqikelelo, ithi le ntlekele iya kuqhubeka ngo-2016. Kwaye konke Russia nje kuphela kodwa ihlabathi liphela. Kodwa ngokutsho Tamara Globa, ingxaki nje jikelele, batshabalalisa inkqubo yehlabathi indala ithuba elikhulu iRashiya ukuba kuhambela phambili phambi koko, ngokuvumelana nabakhwitsi, kwaye kuya kwenzeka kwixesha elizayo.

Enye inkomba ezaziwayo-kakuhle - Fatima Hodueva, nto leyo yayiyeyokugqibela ukufumana le "Battle of the oosiyazi." Ngokutsho kwakhe, ixesha inzima kuqoqosho Russian - ngo-2015 - badlula. Ngaphezu koko, le meko iya kuhlengahlengiswa kunye ngcono. A inkqubela ebonakalayo iza kwenzeka entwasahlobo ka-2016.

Le umprofetikazi odumileyo Bulgarian Vanga e iingqikelelo zabo bathi 2016 kuya kuba nzima ukuba iRussia. Ngaphezu koko, ihlabathi liphela liya kuhlawula ntlekele. Kodwa ekupheleni konyaka imeko kweli lizwe nakwihlabathi womelele ngakumbi.

Njengoko ubona, umbuzo xa Russia iya kubeyisa le ntlekele, oosiyazi iimpendulo kakhulu nethemba. Makhe nethemba ukuba iingqikelelo zabo libe yinyaniso.

Izenzo yokulungisa le ngxaki

Iingcali abaninzi oyikholelwayo ukuba ubukhulu becala ezi ngxaki zangoku zanixa- nokwehla okukhulu kwamaxabiso oyile kwiimarike zehlabathi. Urhulumente Russian anganalo kuphela neempembelelo le into, kwaye akubonakali ezandleni zakhe unawo zixhobo ngokwenene jack up intengo ngegolide emnyama.

Kwangaxeshanye, iingcali zikholelwa ukuba sinako ukoyisa ingxaki ukuba urhulumente athathe amanyathelo ukuze baguqule ulawulo kuqoqosho, kuya kuyenza eRashiya nomtsalane ngakumbi ukuba utyalo-mali, ngokunjalo kunciphisa ukuxhomekeka ngeoli mali yelizwe.

Ixhala namathemba

Iingcali ezininzi yokuqikelela iingxaki zoqoqosho elide eRashiya kunye nethemba engacacanga bephuma kulo. Ngelo abameli ngexesha elifanayo urhulumente, oko kukuthi, Anton Siluanov, Aleksey Ulyukaev noElvira Nabiullina, eqikelelwayo nokuzinziswa imeko-mali ngonyaka ka 2017-2018. Nabo yamanyama, abanye abahlalutyi amazwe, ingakumbi, yaseTshayina nesiJamani. Ngoko ke ukuba ezona zinto zifuneka kuqala ukuze themba phakathi baseRashiya eziqhelekileyo apho beziyeke khona. Ngaphezu koko, ezinye iingcali ukubona imeko yangoku kwinani lamathuba someleza ebonakalayo kuqoqosho lwesizwe, kunye neziphumo kwi imeko eziphambili ehlabathini. Emva kwexesha lobunzima kodwa izinto ezimbi ngokucacileyo, kwaye ubonelela iimpawu ezizodwa kakhulu, nto leyo zinqabile kakhulu.

Ukukhuthaza kunye uqikelelo oosiyazi, kodwa kufuneka aphathwe ngokuqaphela okukhulu, njengoko kubavumisi ngeenkwenkwezi basekele izigqibo zabo nangoku ayikho ingcaciso ziinzululwazi nesenzeko.

Ngokubanzi, abemi Russia nga nethemba kuphela ukuba yokuphuma ekhawulezayo noko ukusuka intlekele ekuyo i-lizwe. Kodwa kufuneka azilungiselele imiba yezoqoqosho kunye mali lwexesha elide. Kulo mzekelo, nokuba ingxaki urhuqa phambili, siya kukwazi ukuhlangabezana intloko-on. Njengoko bathi, nethemba okuhle kodwa ukulungiselela babi.