Uhlalutyo lwexesha luchungechunge luvula iindlela ezintsha zokuphuhliswa

Ukuqwalasela ukuhlalutya kwexesha luchungechunge kungekhona njengengcamango engabonakaliyo, kodwa njengento esetyenziswa ngokubanzi ekusebenzeni, sinokugqiba ukuba esi sihloko sifanelekileyo namhlanje ukuba sifunde iinkqubo eziliqela. Ngokukodwa kukufuneka kwimisebenzi yezoqoqosho yomntu, ngoko ke imimandla eninzi kwiincwadi zenzululwazi ezithandwayo zinikezwa ngokuchanekileyo kwindlela yokujonga ngayo ukusebenzisa kwalo mongo. Kodwa ububanzi bokufunda kunye nokuvavanywa kwexesha lokugqibela alupheli apho.

Inqobo yenkcazo yexesha kwiintlobo ezininzi ikhumbuza inkqubo yokuqokelela nayiphi na inkcazelo yolwazi, kwaye iqulethwe ngokuchanekileyo kwezibonakaliso zangempela kwixesha elithile, lilinganiswe ngendlela ebonisa ukuthembeka okukhulu. Ngamanye amagama, xa kuchazwa nayiphi na into, igrafu isetyenziselwa apho iirhafu zexesha leemilinganiselo zichanekile kwi-axis axis kunye nendawo yayo yangempela kwi-axis axis.

Enyanisweni, iindlela zokuhlalutya kwexesha zakha isiseko sokuchaza imithetho eminingi yemvelo kunye neenkqubo zobugcisa. Ukuveliswa kwazo kwavumela ukuba inkqubo yokuchazwa iyancitshiswa kwiibalo ezithile zemathematika. Kodwa akuzona zonke iinkqubo ezinokuthi zingene kwisikhokelo seefomula ezicacileyo. Kodwa isisombululo seengxaki ezimbini eziphambili asikhenxiswanga. Zizo:

- ukuzimisela kohlobo lwechungechunge;

Ukubikezela.

Ngoko uhlalutyo lwexesha luchungechunge lufumene ukhuthazo olongezelelweyo ekuphuhlisweni kwalo, kwaye kwi-arsenal yayo yabonakala isetyenzisiwe esinezityebi, iindlela.

Umzekelo weklasi wexesha luchungechunge luluhlu olucetywayo ngo-1976 ngeBhokisi kunye neJenkins. Kulo mzekelo wokufunda umsebenzi wezothutho lomoya wenyanga ngamazwe iminyaka elishumi elinesibhozo ngexesha le-1949-1960, babonisa ubukho bamacandelo amabini: isenzo esivumelanayo kunye neenguqu zonyaka. Xa ukukhula kwezithuthi kuye kwanda ngokunyuka, kwaye kuxhomekeka kwangexesha, kuye kwavela amabala amaninzi okutshiza kunye nokubola kwemisebenzi. Olu hlobo lenkcazo lubizwa ngokuba ngumzekelo ngexesha eliphindaphindiweyo.

Ngaloo nyaka, enye ibhokisi kunye neJenkins zanikela umdla kakhulu ngokumalunga nokubikezela, kodwa indlela enobunzima neyinkimbinkimbi ye-Autoregressive Integrated Secondary Moving Average (ARPSS).

Xa ufunda iinkqubo ezixhomekeke kwimpembelelo yangaphandle, ukusasazwa kwindlela efanelekileyo yokuphazamiseka kwexesha. Kwachazwe kwii-80 zekhulu lokugqibela. Ingundoqo yendlela yokufunda iinkqubo emva kokungenelela kwinkqubo evela ngaphandle. Uhlalutyo lwengqungquthela yexesha luyikuhlola ukuqaliswa kweendlela ezintsha zokulawula, ukusetyenziswa kweendlela ezahlukahlukeneyo, impembelelo yeenkqubo zokwenza umthetho , njl.

Uhlalutyo lwamaxesha olulathiso lubonakala ngesiseko seendlela zangaphambili. Phakathi kwendlela yokuvavanya kule ndlela kubonakala ixesha elibonakalayo kunye nexesha. Izinombolo eziyinkimbinkimbi, iinguqu zeFourier zisetyenziselwa ngokubanzi ngokubala.

Ubuninzi beendlela kunye neendlela ezibandakanya ukuhlalutya kwexesha eliqulathekileyo, liqinisekisa ukuba lukhuni kangakanani lo mhlaba kukuqhubela phambili uphando. Emva koko, iinkcazo zezi nkqubo zinzima kwaye zifuna inani elithile lamava avela kumhlalutyi. Ukugqithisa okunamandla ekuphuhliseni iteknoloji yekhompyutheni yabakhokelela ekugqibeleni lolu hlobo lokuhlalutya kwinqanaba elitsha lekhwalithi. Kwaye ukusabalalisa ngokugqithiseleyo kwe-intanethi kwenze ukuba kubekho iziphumo zophando zakutshanje kule ntsimi efumanekayo kwinqanaba elibanzi.

Uhlalutyo lwengxelo yexesha, lusetyenziswa ngumdlali ophumelelayo kwimarike ye-Forex, kukufunda kwishedyuli yokuphuhliswa kwenkampani evumela ukuba umphathi akwazi ukuphuhlisa umgca ochanekileyo, kwaye ukuhlolwa kweemarike kunika indawo ebanzi yomsebenzi kubathengisi nabaphathi, ukuvumela ukulungiswa kwinqanaba lentengo kunye neentlobo zemveliso okanye iinkonzo ezithengiswayo Injongo yokufumana inzuzo enkulu.

Indlela nganye yokuhlalutya ifanelekileyo ingqalelo kwaye idinga ukufundisisa. Kwaye ukuba unomdla kumncinci omnye kubo, ngoko ke injongo yale nqaku ifumaneka.