Gas deal with China: nobubi

Emva kweminyaka thethwano, ekugqibeleni eRashiya wenza isivumelwano igesi kunye neTshayina. Ukususela ngoko, i-aphikisane wokutyikitywa kwesivumelwano alupheli. Izimvo ahlukana. Abanye bakholelwa kule ntengiselwano luluncedo kakhulu, ngoxa abanye - ilahleko. Kweli nqaku siza kuthetha ngeziphumo ezintle nezimbi kwesivumelwano sonikezelo "amafutha blue 'Russian e-China.

NgokoMthetho deal

Nto leyo ethetha ukuba isivumelwano nerhasi China? Imigaqo intengiselwano zezi zilandelayo: isivumelwano kukuba iminyaka engama-30, imali $ 400 yezigidi zezigidi. La mazwe mabini ziya kwakha umbhobho apho China uya kufumana igesi Russian yendalo ezifunekayo kuphuhliso loqoqosho yayo. Ukongeza, kukho inani elaneleyo "zamafutha blue" baya kuvulela umoya kweli lizwe. Minyaka e China ziya kusiwa 38 billion cubic metres yerhasi. Ekuhambeni kwexesha, kuya kabini umthamo ubonelelo. Yona iRussia, oko kukuthi, ukongeza izibonelelo ezicacileyo-mali, iya kuba nako iyantluko wentengiso ukuze hydrocarbon zayo nokunciphisa ukuxhomekeka Western Europe.

Lwemibhobho "Amandla eSiberia"

ezithunyelwa fuel ziya kwenziwa kwi wegesi omkhulu othi "Amandla eSiberia". Yena uya kuba yinxalenye yenkqubo yezothutho lamaziko negesi Irkutsk kunye Yakutsk swi unikezelo "amafutha blue" e-China, eJapan, Korea kunye East Far.

Isigaba sokuqala "Yakutia-iyavuma-Vladivostok" wegesi icetyelwe ukuba uqale ukusebenza ngo-2017. Ubude iyonke yokwakha iza kuba malunga 4000 km. Ekuqaleni kuya kuba iikhilomitha 3000 ngenxa yentsalela yalo mbhobho - 800 leekhilomitha. Netoti imibhobho yalo mbhobho - 1420 mm, umthamo wayo - 61 billion cubic metres ngonyaka ngamnye. indlela Route, nto leyo eya kubekwa phezu "Amandla eSiberia", kuya kuba indawo yombhobho oyile "Eastern eSiberia-Pacific Ocean", nto leyo eza kunika ithuba ukugcina iindleko kwiziseko namandla nokuphuculwa ngendlela.

Izisusa intengiselwano

Kukholelwa ukuba isivumelwano nerhasi China - Ngumzuzu intuthuko enxulumene nemeko neAfrika ezintsonkothileyo eYurophu. Noko ke, ukuqukumbela izivumelwano ezinjalo akwenzeki ngamini-nye okanye kwiinyanga ezimbalwa. Iminyaka elishumi elinesihlanu ekwakheni ubudlelwane, eRashiya kunye neTshayina. Gas isivumelwano - ngenxa yomsebenzi elide nzima ukwakha intsebenziswano enkulu-isikali qhinga phakathi amagunya ezimbini ukwenzela ukubethelela indawo yayo ehlabathini. Okwangoku, intsebenziswano phakathi China neRashiya ifumene ngeenxa entsha, kokubini kwezopolitiko ngokwalo kwezoqoqosho. Ngengozi, isivumelwano ezininzi negesi isiganeko yimbali ne-China.

diversification market

"Musa ukubeka onke amaqanda akho ngobozini-nye," - uthi mzekeliso. Eneneni, esisigxina eRashiya kunye neNtshona yeYurophu, ungquzulwano kunokukhokelela imiphumo engalindelekanga. izohlwayo kwezoqoqosho, apho amazwe eEC uzama 'isizathu with "kwilizwe lethu emva kokuba Ukuvuma eCrimea Russian, uyakwazi igesi kunye namafutha izinto. Ukuba ukusuka Russian "igolide abamnyama" Europe kuya kuba nzima ukuba ukwala, kuba endaweni yayo kukho izicokisi ezininzi, i "amafutha blue" kule ndlela ke usengozini. amazwe eEC kukuba disadvantageous kakhulu ukuba bashiye izibonelelo Russian yendalo. abalingane babo qhinga - eUnited States - kwixa elizayo akayi kuba nako ukungena kwimarike yaseYurophu kunye izixa ezikhulu yerhasi yendalo. Nangona kunjalo, lo usongo lisekhona, ngoko ixesha basayina isivumelwano igesi Russia. ETshayina, apho ngo-2014 yaba izigqibo ukuba ekomelezeni ubudlelwane kwezoqoqosho kunye kwilizwe lethu, akunakwenzeka ukuba ukusongela kwayo ukwayo.

Iingcali uqaphele ukuba kukho ukusilela yaseYurophu ngomhla inkampani igesi yendalo Russian "Gazprom" iya kuba enye befanelekile. Masithi isixa "zamafutha blue" kwimarike yaseYurophu iya kuncitshiswa ukusuka yangoku-29% kwi-16%. Inkxalabo, ukuze ukuba ukulahlekelwa intengiso, uya kwanela ukwandisa umthamo amafutha ethengiswa China ukuya 70 billion cubic metres.

utyalo yaseTshayina e kuqoqosho Russian

Ngo-2013, umthamo utyalo-mali ngqo kwi China kuqoqosho Russian yaba 4,08 billion zeerandi. Eli nani liphantsi kakhulu, unikwe ukuba uqoqosho kwamanye amazwe, China utyale amashumi ezigidi. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa kukuqinisa ubudlelwane Russian-Chinese ngo-2020, utyalo-mali China i-kulindeleke ukuba ikhule izihlandlo zibe sixhenxe. Enye yeendawo ezininzi ethembisa China ngokuba utyalo-mali kuphuhliso loqoqosho Far East.

Umbutho ukuthunyelwa le "amafutha blue 'Russian e-China - iprojekthi zotyalo elikhulu-isikali elizweni jikelele. Kuphela kummandla Russian Federation kulwakhiwo lwezibonelelo zothutho kunye negesi ziya satyala malunga $ 55 lezigidi. Ukuya ngasempumalanga kwilizwe lethu liya kuba infrastructure igesi mkhulu, leyo kukuphucula uqoqosho lommandla lonke. amacandelo lonke uqoqosho Russian ziya kufumana inkxaso enkulu kuphuhliso lwayo: zobunjineli, ishishini inqawa, yokunyibilikisa isinyithi. Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba yombhobho "Amandla eSiberia" kwi akuphiwa irhasi China ziya kumiliselwa, ezakhiwe imibhobho ubukhulu becala eRashiya.

Ixabiso amafutha wathengisa

baya irhasi Russian zendalo namaqabane ethu Chinese kangakanani? Olu daba kuxoxwa kulo lonke ihlabathi. Impendulo ukuba ifihlakele phantsi umkhusane emfihlekweni yorhwebo kwaye ngoko ngamayelenqe ephambili yale sivumelwano. Ukuba isigqibo ixabiso ngokusekelwe kwimali iyonke kwesivumelwano igesi kunye nomthamo elindelekileyo yobonelelo, ixabiso layo liya kuba $ 350 nganye 1,000 cubic metres. m. banethemba ngaphezulu Aleksey Grivach, usekela-mlawuli we-Energy Fund Security. Ngokutsho kwakhe, kuthathelwa ingqalelo ixesha yonikezelo eyandayo kwisithuba seminyaka emihlanu ukuya 38 billion cubic metres ixabiso irhasi Russian 1000 cubic metres. m unako ukufikelela-380 zeerandi.

Kufuneka Makukhunjulwe ukuba ixabiso irhasi athunyelwa eChina kuyimfuneko ukuthabatha izinga lerhafu phezu nezokukhupha izimbiwa, ekubeni iidiphozithi, nto leyo eya kuba umthombo ukuba amafutha ekubonelelwe, ukunika iinzuzo zerhafu. Ngenxa yoko, uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali karhulumente uya kuphulukana isixa esikhulu. Kubonakala ukuba ixabiso umgca emazantsi "zamafutha blue" kuba China iza kuba ngaphantsi kwe-avareji yeendleko ($ 381) igesi ekhutshwe "Gazprom" eYurophu. Kwaye eziphantsi kakhulu ixabiso eliqhelekileyo apho China ufumana ukusuka eMyanmar Turkmenistan. Ngokutsho JP Morgan, China ithenga irhasi yendalo evela eMyanmar and Central Asia kwi $ 400 nganye 1,000 cubic metres. m.

lwemali

On yintoni contract igesi iimeko sasayinwa China? Ziziphi lwangoku ahlawule amafutha, ummelwane wethu ukuya ngasempumalanga? Le mibuzo umdla abaxhasi kunye abachasi yesivumelwano. Emva kokusayina isivumelwano, iingcali baqala ukuxela i revolution kwindlela yolawulo-mali lwehlabathi. ukurhoxiswa agudileyo kwiibhondi zikarhulumente US mali Russian kunye nendalo cross-komda msebenzi wokuqala, wenziwe ebhankini Shanghai VTB ngohlobo lwemali Chinese, ukuba benze izigqibo balumke kakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, i People i-Bank yesivumelwano China kunye Bank of Russia malunga nokusetyenziswa kwemali kwiindawo zokuhlala macala kunye nokudalwa arhente ngokudibeneyo mlinganiselo Russian-Chinese kufuneka nzulu ukuphazamisa tycoons yasentshona. Yonke into iya yokuba imvumelwano inkulu yatyikitywa phakathi kwe-China ne-Russia, ziya kuhlawulwa hayi eerandi. Kungenxa yoko le nto ixabiso lokugqibela kwamafutha Russian sele okwangoku ziveziwe. Kuba US, ekutshintsheni iziganeko zaziza kuba buhlungu kakhulu.

Ubudlelwane phakathi Russia ne China

Ngokuthe gabalala, China kunye eRussia namaqabane eqhinga ngokuchaseneyo eYurophu kunye USA. Kukho umkhwa othile, njengoko apho ihlabathi lwamaxabiso Koloni nobhaliso lumiswe. Kule nkqubo, lonke uluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe kufuneka nje asebenzise iimveliso efanayo, kodwa ukuba bacinge malunga efanayo. Noko ke, ngubani amagunya naseRussia kunye neTshayina, sinamandla kakhulu. Xa la mazwe baye bazama ukususa ukusuka chess kwezopolitiko, ilandelwe yi basabela umva. States ziye zaqala ukuba akhusele ilungelo ukuzimela labo kunye nesazisi. ETshayina naseRashiya lokuphinda isithuba zabo zenkcubeko, kwaye oku zembali, esebenza ehlabathini lonke. Kwaye kule ndlela ayikho ixabiso ebalulekileyo ebandakanya isivumelwano Russian kunye neTshayina. imithombo Gas - yenye kwincopho eqhelekileyo lokudibana phakathi mazwe mabini ekwakheni ubudlelwane olusekelwe kwintsebenziswano zoxolo kunye ukuthembana.

isiphelo

Siye kwakhona i kwezopolitiko nezoqoqosho mathuba mahle abonelelwayo yi isivumelwano irhasi kunye China kwilizwe lethu. Nobubi yesivumelwano kufuneka zivavanywe ekufikeni umbono soqoqosho. Kakade ke, lo "Gazprom" engaphenduli ukufumana uncedo ngoko nangoko kulo omkhulu kwiintengiselwano. Kodwa eyona nto iza kukwazi ukuhlela kwimarike enye; ukubazi ezenziwa liqabane lethu iMpuma kule projekthi (intlawulo kwangaphambili ukwenzela ukwakhiwa mbhobho ngama-25 ezigidi zeerandi); ukwakha izibonelelo enkulu imveliso kunye nothutho igesi yendalo kunye ngaloo ukuvuselela imeko yezoqoqosho kwiMpuma Ekude. Lo mbuzo ixabiso izinto irhasi Russian nangoku vula kudala inkxalabo kwezinye abahlaziyi zemali. Noko ke, igama elithi "pluses 'elide kule mvumelwano igesi kunye China ingaphezulu kunoko" bawo ". Ngoko ke, enoba oko - aya kukuthetha ixesha.