Kumjikelo woshishino

Umjikelo kwezoqoqosho - yenye neengqikelelo ezingundoqo imbali kuphuhliso lobudlelwane kwezoqoqosho. imveliso Public luphawulwa azize rhoqo ukuba ukuphinda emva kwexesha elithile.

Ngokuba lixesha lokuqala ukwehla kwezoqoqosho ezifana kwatsala ingqalelo uHelen Clark - Economist IsiNgesi, owathi ukuba izikhewu phakathi kwintlekele yoqoqosho ayikho ngengozi. Xa kuphuhliso negalelo elikhulu ezenziwe umkhenkethi Russian izimvo zakhe - ND Kondratiev.

Ithiyori yomjikelo ishishini isekelwe phezu kutshintshwe thotho ezine izigaba ezizayo yeentlekele - ekudakumbeni - mvuselelo - incopho.

Crisis imele inkqubo yezoqoqosho ukungalingani, nto leyo ekhokelela ukuba imveliso lehla nesingxi yayo. Xa ubudlelwane imakethi ibonakala lunengxaki hormone, nto leyo ikhokelele ekuncipheni elibukhali kwamaxabiso. Umzekelo yesi sigaba unako ukukhonza iminyaka krizis1929-1933, xa amaxabiso US bawile ngaphezu kwama-50%. output yokwehla, ndivuka ngqesho, Esiwa imivuzo kunye, ngokufanelekileyo, ezinganyibiliki kwemfuno yeempahla.

Ukudakumba ixesha ngexesha apho surplus iimpahla ngokuthe ngcembe diverge kwi ngexabiso eliphantsi okanye zimbi. Sales ngokuthe wayelikhoboka, kodwa ukuwa kwamaxabiso kuya ayeke. Iqala i ukunyuka okungephi umthamo imveliso, kodwa urhwebo ayide fast ngesantya ngokwaneleyo. Capital buzinze iibhanki, engafumani isicelo kwemveliso kunye norhwebo. Oku kukhokelela ekwandeni unikezelo imali kunye namazinga asezantsi umdla mboleko. Umjikelo woqoqosho ongena nokuphakamisa yeqonga.

Imvuselelo luphawulwa ukubuyiselwa imithamo yemveliso pre-ntlekele, amaxabiso aphezulu kunye neengeniso zamashishini, imivuzo yabasebenzi. Ngokuthe ngcembe, inqanaba imveliso nengqesho wabuyela pre-ntlekele uphawu, ufikelela kwincopho yayo.

Peak - umthwalo epheleleyo imveliso, ubuninzi bexesha kunokwenzeka, iqondo eliphezulu amaxabiso, imivuzo kunye nenzala.

Umjikelo kwezoqoqosho - yobulungisa qatha. Released ezininzi eziphilayo yayo. Amaninzi, ngethiyori, ezine ezilandelayo.

Enezifo Kitchin Umjikelo (iminyaka 3-4) - lu dityanisiwe ukuhla kwi zolondolozo zegolide ehlabathini kunye nemithetho ejikeleza wemali. Umjikelo medium-term (iminyaka 10-20) Zhuglara (mveliso) - unxulunyaniswa iinkqubo kwisigaba yeentengo zemboleko kuchaphazela iinkqubo zotyalo-mali; Smith (ulwakhiwo) - updates ngamaxesha kwezibonelelo ezahlukeneyo zokuvelisa. Long-term (iminyaka 45-60) Kondratieff Umjikelo - ezinxulumene ezintsha.

Osoqoqosho babe iinkcazelo ezahlukeneyo ezibangela mijikelo shift. Kukho iindlela ezintathu ingcaciso yale meko.

Eyokuqala isekelwe kwinto yokuba umjikelo kwezoqoqosho ngenxa yezinto ezinganxulumananga kwinkqubo yoqoqosho ngokwayo. Ikakhulu kwi ukuhla zemveliso kuchaphazela ngezimanga zendalo kunye neziganeko ezopolitiko. Umjikelo wesibini ucinga njengoko kuqoqosho nesenzeko lwangaphakathi. Eyona nto iphambili eziphembelela ukuguquka kwemo lwezoqoqosho, le ndlela uthathwa ngokuba uhlaziyo yovandlakanyo ababandakanyekayo ekuveliseni eyinkunzi. Kwi amahla ndinyuka kuchaphazela kwamanani yotyalo, utshintsho kubonelelo imali, ukuncitshiswa isiphumo esikhulu, inkunzi ehlaziyiweyo, njalo-njalo Indlela yesithathu ubona unobangela oscillation kwi imiba ngokudibene yezoqoqosho yangaphakathi ukuya bume lwangaphandle. Aba bamva zithathwa njengokuba zaseprayimari, apho bawaphikise kuqala isenzo kwiimeko zangaphakathi. Eyona nto iphambili lwangaphandle imeko.

Ngenxa yoko, umjikelo kwezoqoqosho uhlobo olulodwa ukuhla inxaxheba kwimisebenzi yezoqoqosho. Tshintsha ikhokelela kuxhotyiwe ucinezelo kunye nokwandiswa kwemveliso, umsebenzi ishishini, ingqesho kunye nakwezinye iimo ezalathayo. Imijikelo ayahluka ngamandla, ubude kunye nezinye iimpawu, kodwa bonke luphawulwa kwisigaba esinye.