Yintoni yindlela enemiqathango kunye nendlela yokubala kakuhle?

Amaninzi ebomini sijamelene nesibakala sokuba ufuna ukuvavanya amathuba lubandakanywe nawuphi na umcimbi. Ukuba ndithenga itikiti leloto okanye hayi, uya kuba yintoni na umgangatho umntwana wesithathu entsatsheni, nokuba okanye ngomso welifu imvula kwakhona - Imizekelo ezinjalo ezingenakubalwa. Kwimeko kwecacileyo, inani iziphumo ezithandekayo lahlulwe ngenani elipheleleyo iziganeko. Ukuba itikiti leloto yokuwina-10, yaye ezingama-50, amathuba okufumana ibhaso elingana 10/50 = 0.2, okt 20 xa kuthelekiswa 100 Kodwa yintoni ntoni xa kukho iziganeko eziliqela, yaye ngokusondeleyo bazalana omnye komnye? Kulo mzekelo, abanomdla Sikuye akukho lula, kwaye linokuba enemiqathango. Loluphi uhlobo ixabiso yaye ibalwe njani - kuya nje kuhlawulwa kweli nqaku.

ukuba nombono

Amathuba ekhutshwa phantsi kwemiqathango - ithuba isenzeko isiganeko esithile, ukuba ezinye isiganeko ezinxulumene nayo iye sele kwenzekile. Cinga umzekelo olula ukuphosa imali. Xa draw wayengekho apho, ngoko ke amathuba iintloko ukuwa okanye imisila kuya kuba njalo. Kodwa ukuba ingqekembe izihlandlo ezihlanu ilandelelana waya iingalo ukuya kwaye silindele ukuba uyavumelana 6, 7, ngokukodwa ukuphindaphindwa 10 unciphise bekuya kuba sengqiqweni. Ngalinye ixesha ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukulahleka njengokhozi, amathuba imisila ezikhulayo, yaye kungekudala kusenjalo nanamhlanje ziya kuwa.

Ifomula kungenzeka olunemiqathango

Ngoku makhe ukujongana njani eli xabiso mboleko. Thina isho ngu B isiganeko sokuqala kunye yesibini ngokusebenzisa A. Ukuba amathuba ingenzeka kwi non-zero, ngoko ke kulungile ukuba equation ilandelayo:

P (A | B) = P (AB) / P (B), apho:

• P (A | B) - A Inani lilonke olunemiqathango;
• P (AB) - amathuba co-isahlakalo iziganeko A and B;
• P (B) - amathuba umcimbi B.

Kancinci ukuguqulela ukufumana umlinganiselo P (AB) = P (A | B) P * (B). Ukuba sisebenzisa indlela yoqheliso, kunokwenzeka baphethe formula imveliso kwaye usebenzise libe inani engenasizathu zeziganeko:

R (A _{1, A-2, A-3,} ... A _n) = P (A ₁ | _A-2 ... A _n) * P ₍₂ | A ₃ ... A _n) * P ₍₃ | _A4 ... A _n ) ... P _(n-1 | _n A) * P _(n).

umkhuba

Ukwenza kube lula ukujongana nendlela olunemiqathango ubalwe amathuba kwesiganeko, cinga isibini imizekelo. Masithi kukho isitya apho kukho 8 7 iiswiti Mint. Ziyafana ngobukhulu nemiyalezo ukunganethi incothulwe ezimbini kuzo. Zeziphi amathuba ukuba zombini ziya kuba chocolate? Thina bangangenisa nobhalo. Kwaye ke isiphumo kuthetha ukuba lekese itshokolethi wokuqala, abangama-In - itshokolethi yesibini amnandi. Emva koko sifumana oku kulandelayo:

P (A) = P (B) = 8/15

P (A | B) = P (B | A) = 7/14 = 1/2,

P (AB) = 8/15 x 1/2 = 4/15 ≈ 0,27

Cinga elinye icala. Masithi unayo usapho umntwana-mbini, yaye siyazi ukuba ubuncinane omnye umntwana oyintombazana. Yintoni yindlela enemiqathango ukuba amakhwenkwe aba bazali kodwa? Njengokuba kunjalo edlulileyo, makhe siqale ezithile ubhalo. Vumela P (B) - amathuba ukuba intsapho ubuncinane enye intombazana, P (A | B) - amathuba ukuba umntwana wesibini naye intombazana, F (AB) - amathuba ukuba intsapho amantombazana amabini. Ngoku ukwenza izibalo. Akunakuze kubekho imidibaniso ezahlukeneyo 4 abantwana abangamadoda nababhinqileyo kwaye ngexesha elinye kwimeko enye kuphela (xa usapho amakhwenkwe amabini), amantombazana akayi kuba phakathi kwabantwana. Ngoko ke, lo P amathuba (B) = 3/4 no P (AB) = 1/4. Emva elandelayo yethu indlela, we-GET:

P (A | B) = 1/4: 3/4 = 1/3.

Tolika umphumo ube oku: ukuba ebengazalwanga isetyenziswe eyaziwayo entsimini omnye koonyana, amathuba okuba amantombazana ezimbini iza kuba 25 nxamnye 100 Ke, ekubeni sisazi ukuba umntwana oyintombazana, amathuba ukuba amakhwenkwe usapho akukho namnye siyenyuka lesithathu.